Due to the stimulating monetary and financial policy, experts from the Kieler Institut für Wirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) expect a further strong increase in global GDP for 2018 in its winter forecast of December 13, 2017. After a growth in global GDP of 3.8% in 2017, an increase of 3.9% is forecasted for 2018. This is a slight increase of growth prospects by 0.2 percentage points compared to the summer forecast in 2017 (GDP growth in 2018 + 3.7%). Improvement compared to the summer forecast, may, in advanced economies, result on the one hand from persistently good investment conditions for companies, that contribute to increasing profits due to more favorable financial conditions and, on the other hand, should have a positive influence on the good mood among consumers and the increasing available income in private households.
With regard to emerging countries, higher raw material prices and a robust foreign economy justify the slight increase in growth prospects.
Risks for the forecast appear in particular to exist in the financial environment in connection with the persistent normalization of monetary policy. In contrast, the uncertainties originating from the political environment appear overall to have diminished somewhat compared to the previous year’s forecast.